I keep seeing headlines that announce the recession is over, yet people are still walking around in a state of panic! What's really going on?
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Answers (3)
The financial markets are working again, company profits are more than expected, and the stock market is up, so if you are listening to the business news you might get that impression the recession is over. However the unemployment rate is still increasing and that is what most of us care about.
Some people are idiots. Some are liars. This is not a "recession." It is a Depression. Those banks & most companies which claim higher earnings (e.g. Goldman, BofA, Chase, etc) have "cooked the books." Treasury "postponed" regulations for marking assets to market, so they simply upped the valuation for stuff they have no clue what it's really worth.
Depressions develop in phases. The stock market starts to look better, but it's really a "dead cat bounce" or bear-market rally.
The real unemployment rate has been over 20% since May and is still rising. People whose unemployment benefits have run out are still unemployed, but no longer counted. Neither are new grads, new immigrants & illegal aliens, reentrants to the workforce - but they are unemployed and looking for work. There are at least 30 million unemployed jobseekers out there.
Foreclosures are still increasing. Subprime was only a preview of coming attractions. Next up for resets & recasts are Alt-A, Option ARMs, prime and jumbo prime. Commercial RE is about to see a massive wave of foreclosures since their loans are coming due over the next 2 - 3 years. There are no signs that they will be able to rollover these loans. Banks are not lending.
Until debts are paid, this is going to get worse. Anyone who does not pay off their mortgage, credit cards, etc, is contributing to the collapse.
They're trying to ease the pain and worry by spreading lies and propaganda. Commonplace activity of the government, really.